Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Hair of the Dog, 9/11/08

Sorry I missed a day. It's not because I couldn't stomach the the Brewers' brutal extra innings loss to the Reds on Tuesday. It's because I spent most of that day flying across the country and most of today working--without Internet access. Still, through the magic of mobil communications technology, I was able to monitor today's 4-3 win over Cinci. The Crew came from behind thanks to a two-out hit for Mike Cameron and, being lucky to have more than two outs to spare when the terrible Tony Gwynn Jr. came up to bat with the bases loaded. The win brings the Brewers to 3-7 in the month, and on this home stand. Pretty bad, but it could be a lot worse.

We're basically "numbers guys" on this here rag, so lets try to put things into perspective. The Brewers again have a 4-game-lead in the wild card division over the Phillies, the Cardinals, and now the F-ing Astros (who are the hottest team in baseball right now). There are 16 more games to play (18 for the Cards). Lots of people are looking at the last 10 days as evidence that he Brewers are choking, or not ready to be a playoff team, or whatever. A better way to look at it is that things are just regressing to the mean. It's market correction. We were 20-7 in August, which means we're 23-14 in August+September. That's pretty good. An even better way to look at it is that we're 83 and 63 on the season. That's the 5th best record in baseball, and a big enough sample size that it's indicative of the kind of team the Brewers are. The last 10 days are rough, but what it really came down to is that we were 3 for 6 in 1-run games, when all season, we've been 28-14. Given the amount of luck involved in such games, and the quality of our bullpen, we're still pretty awesome in such games.

The upcoming road trip will be tough, but it's important to remember, we're an 83-63 team, not a 3-7 team. Tomorrow we head to Philly for 4 games, followed by 3 in Chicago and 3 in Cincinnati. If we play like an 83-63 team, we should win like 6 of those games. That'd just about do it. So chin-up little fellas, we're going to kick some ass. Go Brewers.

Today's Hair of the Dog is brought to you by Fat Tire Amber Ale, the only tap beer at the hotel bar that isn't a wheat bear. What the hell is up with that?


PaulNoonan said...

Weird. It's almost fall, it's time to cut the wheat from the chaffe, so to speak.

PaulNoonan said...

Also keep in mind that the Cubs play the 'Stros this weekend.

Anonymous said...

I think the best case scenario for that game is for Hurricane Ike to carry both teams to Oz.

DannyNoonan said...

Ike actually brings up some interesting questions. Both teams are off Monday, and if the Saturday and Sunday games are cancled due to the hurricane, they're supposed to have a doubleheader on Monday. But what if they can't have it in Houston? Now, it's extremely unlikely that they'd come all the way up here since there are plenty of stadiums out of the hurricane's path and a roof isn't really what's needed this time around, and the visiting team's fanbase would be just 90 miles away. But Miller Park does have a history of being a neutral site, and the Brewers are still on the road, and Selig seems to like Miller park as a neutral site, and the games would sell out, albeit mostly with Cubs fans.

So, if there was a doubleheader between the Astros and the Cubs here, would you go? Who would you cheer for? Or, rather, who would you cheer against more loudly?