Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Hair Of The Dog, Wednesday, September 24, 2008


Boom.

The Brewers came out on top of an intense back and forth affair when the red hot Prince Fielder crushed a 2-0 slider out of Miller Park for a walk-off 7-5 win to remain one back of the Mets, who had earlier dispatched an uninterested Cubs team.

The game was filled with clutch hit after clutch hit, a de facto inside the park Hr, and many blown leads. It was in many respects a great game, but had Prince failed to come through in the 9th, it would have just been another depressing missed opportunity. And while the pitching matchups favored the Mets last night, on this day they will face Carlos Zambrano, who will be looking to prove that he is post-season ready after following up his no-hitter with a clunker. Lefty Oliver Perez will take the hill for the Mets. The Cubs have generally pounded left-handed pitching (.291/.368/.445), but that’s if Lou Piniella goes with a credible lineup.

For the Brewers, CC Sabathia will take his turn on short rest against Pirates’ ace Paul Maholm. I like the move both to improve the Brewers’ chances against Pitt’s one credible starter, and to work an extra start out of the big man. Against lefties the Pirates are an unimpressive .251/.322/.395. Moreover, these Pirates as a group have had a terrible go of it against Sabathia, managing only a .194/.282/.281 line. The Brewers have actually tagged Maholm pretty well (.337/.392/.556)

Things are shaping up. Let’s take this one and square this race.

Go Brewers!

In Football Land…

I mean, I just don’t care about football right now, but if you’re interested, Plaxico Burress has been suspended by the Giants for missing practice.

Willie Parker will miss next Monday’s game with a knee injury, while Marc Bulger has been benched for Trent Green, until his inevitable concussion.

The Bears really suck at drafting offensive players.

Back to Baseball…

PECOTA rules again.

Today’s HOTD is brought to you by Nyquil. The good stuff, with Pseudophedrine.

Oh, and the Woot-Off continues.

13 comments:

E.S.K. said...

any idea what the starters are shaping up like?

tracker said...

All I've heard is that Gallardo will not be a starter due to an inability to swing a bat or run bases. Sheets played catch, no word on how it turned out. Parra's done. Suppan sucks. McClung on short rest? Jesus H.

Remember when we had eight starters back in March? Wonder what Claudio Vargas is doing.

PaulNoonan said...

Basically, no. MLB is blank. I'll check Will Carroll's column as soon as it's up, round 11:00.

E.S.K. said...

That Gallardo news is awesome.

The rest...sheesh. Suppan is definitely pitching one of these games.

tracker said...

They might have to throw one spring-training style: 3 from Yo, 2 from DiFelice, 1 or 2 from Dillard, Stetter, etc.

DannyNoonan said...

Sheets and Sabathia are listed for Saturday and Sunday now: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/index.jsp#20080927

tracker said...

From brewers.com

Mark this one under "possible" instead of "probable." Sheets could come into play for the next-to-last game of the Brewers' regular season if it is a must-win game, but the team will have to wait until later in the week to see whether the tendinitis in his right elbow will allow him to pitch. Sheets left his Sept. 17 start at Chicago because of that injury and revealed to reporters after the game that he had been experiencing a "cutting" sensation in his right elbow since the final week in August. Right-hander Dave Bush could also start here on three days' rest.

E.S.K. said...

He's actually got a lot of experience starting on 3 days rest for some reason. Bad experience, yes, but experience.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=bushda01&year=00

tracker said...

Anybody familiar with AccuScore? They've calculated the Brewers, despite trailing by a game, entered last night with a 53.2% chance of winning the wild card, the Mets 30.4%, based on simulated matchups, although I don't know how they match up the Brewers' mystery starters. BP's numbers are roughly the opposite. What's their criteria?

PaulNoonan said...

I don't know, but Accuscore is now a day old whereas BP has been updated, so perhaps they would be in better accord today.

That said, Accuscore really sees a Brewer sweep over 60% of the time? That's a pretty big number. I would be interested in seeing who is more accurate.

PaulNoonan said...

Over the long haul.

tracker said...

I think AccuScore would be similar today, since both projections on last night (Mets 63% probability of victory, Brewers 68% probability of victory) came true.

PaulNoonan said...

Billy Hall batting second tonight.