Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Would you want Michael Young?

Assume that the Brewers could get Young (to start at 2B) for players who are of lesser importance than a starting second basemen. I have no idea what it would take to get him, he is unhappy with the position change but Daniels is claiming they have no interest in moving him. Here is my fantastical scenario:

Michael Young for Hall. Move Hardy to third. Bring up Escobar at SS.

That gives the Rangers a third basemen, gets rid of a clubhouse cancer and gives the Brewers an All Star second basemen with a career .350 OBP. The salaries I believe are close enough that the Brewers could pick up the difference without getting killed, and there is an existing relationship between Texas and Milwaukee.

By no means do I ever expect it to happen, but there is nothing going on in Milwaukee sports right now, and I am chomping at the bit for the Brewers to get better. Sadly, I don't think Melvin is feeling the same.

(AND SIGN BEN SHEETS!)

UPDATE: Chris doesn't want Ben Sheets. Since it looks like the market is undervaluing him, I think this is a foolish position. So does fangraphs.com, which puts Sheets on par with Derek Lowe:

Even with those injury concerns, Sheets is a valuable asset. Sheets’ streak of 200+ inning seasons ended in 2005. Yet despite reduced innings Sheets has posted win values of 3.5, 4.2, 2.5, and 3.9. That’s an average of 3.5. Coincidentally 2005 was also Derek Lowe’s first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and in the same time span, Lowe has averaged 3.48 wins. It’s worth noting that Lowe also pitched in 244 more innings...

This suggests that while Sheets will not match Lowe in quantity, he will match him in quality. It also reinforces the idea that having an above average often-injured pitcher can be beneficial.

CHONE
Sheets 148 IP 3.84 FIP
Lowe 171 IP 3.71 FIP

Marcels
Sheets 173 IP 3.61 FIP
Lowe 185 IP 3.67 FIP

Yeah, I'll take that, especially on this worthless staff the Brewers would be trotting out there today.

11 comments:

Chris said...

It is kind of funny how no one is rushing to sign the China Doll

How does signing sheets help us since we all know he will spend a 3rd to half of the season hurt

He was not that good the last half of the season either.

can't we just let the Sheets train chug off into the distance. Plus he is our last chance to get a decent extra draft choice. unless of course the evil empire signs him.

PaulNoonan said...

Signing Sheets is a good idea specifically because he is injury prone, and the Brewers are accustomed to dealing with him. He will likely be a huge bargain, and his late season ineffectiveness last year is probably due to overuse more than anything else. He's certainly worth a 1-year deal if you can get him.

I like the Young idea. It turns a huge weakness into a strength, and another huge weakness into something OK. You probably give some of that back at SS, but maybe not, and even so, you probably don't give it all back.

E.S.K. said...

You misremember the extent of his injury-proneness, Chris.

I'll update the post for you.

Chris said...

I remember once CC showed up the China Doll disappeared.

E.S.K. said...

Your memory fails.

tracker said...

You are insane.

E.S.K. said...

On which count?

tracker said...

The Michael Young deal makes the Brewers both worse and considerably poorer. While he's good with the glove as a shortstop, he hasn't played second for years. Who knows how he'll perform there? Plus he's a career .346 obp and .339 last year, both of which are worse than the Brewer incumbent, .352 and .342 respectively. Furthermore, he'll be 32 and make $16 mil next year and is due $80 mil over the next five for such mediocrity. For 09 purposes, Hall only has 6-plus coming so you've added $10 mil to the budget which will already be at or very near Mark A's 80-mil cap by the time the arby signings are over.

I'd also argue that Hall (.893 ops ve lhers last year) plus a decent lh-platoon mate would be a more productive third base than Hardy full-time. And for my money, a sub.800 ops in a single season at Huntsville should earn 21yo Escobar either another season there or a job in Nashville, not the Brewers starting ss position. Even a repeat of his AA performance against major-league pitching would be a downgrade from Hardy, not to mention unrealistic to expect.

You are, of course, right to want Sheets. Unfortunately Melvin's cashed in his chips. They'll be very close to $80 mil after arbitration settles out. If it's as hard a cap as Mark A and Melvin have implied, no matter how much of a bargain Sheets becomes, the Brewers will have nothing for him.

E.S.K. said...

Young is getting $16 million next year?!? Didn't he get $6 last year?

Weeks is getting worse, his numbers have been inversely correlated to his playing time, which I am not a fan of. If making a lateral move offensively, while improving defensively makes them move on from Weeks, I'll be okay with that (although, not if you are right about his salary).

Expecting Escobar to have high OPS every year is folly. He provides wins (hopefully) by making up for his .780ish OPS with excellent defense.

ahren said...

"It also reinforces the idea that having an above average often-injured pitcher can be beneficial."

there is some merit to this, as players who are either good or injured can be valuable. the problem is that you end up replacing their missed innings with a very low quality player. if you plan well for this contingency, i love the strategy. if not, well... then the value of IP becomes apparent rather quickly.

that said, i'd sign sheets if i were the brewers. i'd insist on a club option of some sort though. maybe 24/2 with a club option for 13 or 14. that gets it done at good value and limited risk.

one issue that i think teams might be having with sheets is related to what paul is saying... the brewers have the most experience with managing his injuries, etc., BUT they're uninterested. if i'm another team on the outside looking in, and seeing that the team that knows the MOST about him is steering clear, that has to make me nervous.

ahren said...

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