hi everybody. honored to be making my first post at brewedsports. as you may or may not know-- i'm a baseball supernerd. so much so, that in the offseason, while waiting breathlessly for the new pecota projections to arrive, i like to look through last year's pecotas and the subsequent year's performance and predict what each player's new pecota projections will be.
i've developed a system of sorts, that works pretty well, where i take the percentile hit this year, regress it to the mean to some degree, take that percentile, and move it forward one year on the player's card. this is not perfect or even rigorous, and it's subjective. however, it's fairly accurate usually.
i've been getting asked a lot in the comments why i'm more optimistic about the brewers than most. while the following set of numbers might not totally explain why, it is the foundation of my optimism (i'll explain further in a later post, if i'm not booted off the blog by then):
rickie weeks 257/360/445
mike cameron 258/333/478
ryan braun 302/366/577
prince fielder 281/373/540
corey hart 273/342/495
jj hardy 277/335/457*
jason kendall 244/316/316*
now, that's a pretty damn good lineup. it looks worth 780 runs to me. sure, the shape of some these lines will change-- braun and hart walk less than we expected while hardy has more power than we expected, for instance. but for a "back-of-envelope" calc, i like what i see here. especially given that potential in-house solutions exist for the 7 and 8 hole in the lineup.
* it's interesting to note that only jj hardy and jason kendall outperformed their pecota weighted mean last year.
4 hours ago