Friday, March 20, 2009

Round 1 Open Thread

There are like 16 games today, including Marquette vs. Utah State at 11:30 and Wisconsin vs. Florida State at 8:55. Who do you guys have picked? Leave your comments here.

Friend of Brewed Sports Dave K is liveblogging the Marquette game here.

15 comments:

PaulNoonan said...

I have Wisconsin winning and Marquette going down. If Marquette still had James I very well may have put them in the final 4.

tracker said...

I have Marquette winning and Wisconsin losing. The single "quality" game on the squishy Utah State schedule was in December against Utah. After that, MSOE played a tougher schedule than the Aggies.

Also, I don't believe the old adage that guard play wins tournament games, but I do believe that good Big East-style guard play absolutely destroys Mormon guard play. The Golden Warriors by 20.

Also, I was briefly on the Bucky bandwagon, but FSU just hasn't played a bad game since an early December loss to Northwestern. Most of their losses since came to Wake, Duke, or UNC. They're better than UW, and if UW had a scorer you might give them a puncher's chance in this one, but I have a hard time giving them even that. FSU covers, and then some.

tracker said...

Marquette sure looks small against everybody. The large Mormon in the middle could cause them some problems.

PaulNoonan said...

I think that McNeal and Matthews sometimes get into pissing matches on the floor that results in both players taking multiple bad shots. This is happening right now.

tracker said...

Ah. I was exactly right.

E.S.K. said...

holy crap what an awesome game.

I'm heading out to a pep rally for the Badger women's hockey team. Frozen Four here in Boston!

FreakinRican said...

Nooner I really wanted to pick Wisconsin but I've seen FSU play a lot and considering how bad UW has looked in some of their late game losses I went with FSU. I also had Marquette.

Jon said...

Question for Paul - based on your link to his site and your final 4 picks of West Virginia and Gonzaga, you really like/respect KenPom's ratings. My question is why? Not asking in a weird way, its just that when i've looked at his rankings and/or win probabilities, sometimes they're so WTF? wrong as in common sense tells you they're impossible. Example being his win probs for Gonzaga vs alot of other teams in that bracket this year. Or WVU being rated 8th in the country - i dunno just looking at their game by game results, they were 2-8 versus top 20 opposition. I guess they rate well bc they do a good job of blowing out mediocre teams, but still? Or the fact they rate Memphis so much better than everyone else in the country, when in nonconference their results wre pretty meh. Compared to say Sagarin ratings, i just dont understand whats to like about them, other than the name log5 makes them seem very smart. What am i missing?

PaulNoonan said...

There is, believe it or not, a fairly rational explanation for that. Also, I have more than one bracket.

1. I don't know anything about college basketball, so I outsource to BP because I read BP and it seems fine. At least for one bracket.

2. I also tend to go with the strategy of picking "the good team that no one else picked" to win the whole thing, so I don't really care about the first round anyway because if I'm right later I'll probably make up all of those points.

3. I don't actually do a lot of research or anything for this. On most games I take 5 seconds and go with my first impression.

4. I have more than one bracket. Some are more conventional, and in better shape than that one.

Maybe I forgot to do so this year, but generally I start posts with the phrase "I don't know much about college basketball."

I don't remember my high school record, but it's not like I never win these things either. I've won at least 3 since 2001 (though I play like 2 brackets a year.)

Eric said...

Wow. who would have believed Illinois would lose? oh right; Me.

Eric said...

Ouch. Boston College goes down, my first sweet 16 loss.

Eric said...

Wow. i picked the Badgers because of what i read here.

TD said...

I just love the fact that the Big Ten's #12 Seed took out the ACC #5 ... and the Big Ten #10 took out their number 7. Throw BC getting run off the floor in the second half by USC and Cleveland State embarassing Wake Forest ... and its all the sweeter. North Carolina and Duke are the real deal ... after that, the conference is even more overrated than the Pac-10.

PaulNoonan said...

Oh, and next year I probably won't trust Pomeroy, and will outsource my picks elsewhere.

Eric said...

so far so good, only three sweet 16 losses. To bad about bucky but my consolation is that i picked Xavier.