Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Perceptions of Strength: Volume 1

So, the Brewers are officially without C.C. Sabathia.  It's a damn shame, but not the least bit surprising.

My question, and a question I will pose after each notable transaction is this:

How many games does THIS team win.  (Base it on who is on the roster now, today).

I have 74.


PaulNoonan said...

78-80 or so. Ding them 1 for Branyan, ding them like 4 for CC v. his replacement (Capuano? Also, Sabathia would have, in all likelihood not put up the same winning percentage this year as he did last year, but the fact is that he DID put up that winning percentage last year).

You might make up some of that in the bullpen just based on variance, and in Corey Hart if the idiot can get his shit together. Maybe in Macha too. But you might not.

It's a hard question to answer right now, because if I were manager/GM, I would live with shitty Game defense at thrid, or an Escobar/Hardy combo, start Jeffress in the bigs, and at the very least platoon the bowling ball that is Angel Salome with Kendall. But I don't think any of that will happen.

E.S.K. said...

Yeah, this isn't an exercise in measuring the additional wins of players, I just want to gauge how valuable people perceive certain signing/losses.

I have no sound metric for dropping the Brewers to 74, just a gut feel.

Once the rosters are finalized then I'll dig into an actual prediction.

I'm just interested in how people's predictions will change based on each transaction.

Chris said...

Until all the moves have been made how can you really say?

Until you know all the variables you have to sit tight.

Plus who knows maybe we get a pleasant surprise and Weeks or Hall have decent years

E.S.K. said...

Look up Chris, the point is there somewhere.

PaulNoonan said...

Weeks, maybe. Hall is probably done.

Chris said...

fair enough I did not read the last line my bad

Still think playing the how many wins game in December is silly

E.S.K. said...

Of course it's silly, what isn't silly about sports?

I do believe that there is a very slight change Lasik may save Hall's career, but we'll be able to tell that two weeks into the season.

tracker said...

86-88. They'll have a healthy Yo, which was basically missing all last year, and makes up for the loss of Sheets. A healthy Braun, which was missing from mid-August. While the loss of Branyan hurts, he was so underused that it has a minimal effect. Assuming Hall/Weeks will be no better or worse, the only major loss we'll feel is CC, which is worth 4 wins. Assuming a Dave Bush who perhaps has his shit together from the beginning of the season, and a Manny Parra who has benefitted from a full season as a major-league starter, and a healthy Riske, we make up for a couple of those, then maybe lose a couple due to uncertainty at the #5 starter (McClung?) and the back end of the pen.

DannyNoonan said...

83 or 84. I predict big years from a couple of big hitters, coupled with very very average pitching.

E.S.K. said...

That sounds like the 2008 Cincinnati Reds...who incidentally won 74 games (and who I think the Brewers currently look a lot like).

PaulNoonan said...

The Brewers look superficially like the Reds, but...

A. They don't have Dusty Baker.

B. They're better defensively.

Keppinger and Encarnacion are terrible at their respective positions.

Baker did way more damage than a normal manager by ruining Aaron Harang by throwing him on 2 days rest, and overusing Cueto and Volquez.

Of course, the Reds have a better bullpen.

I share E's frustration in that the Brewers have such easy ways to upgrade. They need 2 big changes, not 20 marginal changes. THat's a good thing IF management realizes it.

They need OBP (which can be had cheaply again if you sacrifice power) a catcher, and a 3rd basemsn. That's it. And a bullpen, but chasing bullpen arms is kinda stupid. I actually like Melvin's bullpen approach except for Gagne.

Anyway, on a team with a power, they should have targeted OBP. That is not Mike Lamb.

E.S.K. said...

I love Melvin's bullpen approach (although I think this was/is a good year to get a "closer" as there are a number of good arms available).

tracker said...

What made Gagne a bad move was the $10 mil we paid him. If we can get him now for say, two years, $7 mil, it would be a good move. He was lights-out down the stretch last year.