Monday, December 22, 2008

I Should Not Listen To Sports Talk Radio

"Anyone who says that the Packers are better off with Rodgers this year is just being silly. The Packers lost 8 games over last year and the Jets gained like 5. That's not all Favre but it's some Favre."

-Mark Belling

Mark Belling is a moron about basically everything, and sports is no exception. Mark Belling graced my radio because it's Packer/Bear week and all other stations were also intolerable, and saying basically the same thing. This is just stupid.

Look, Brett may have been better had he stayed in Green Bay, but we'll never know. What we do know is:

1. Brett has been average in New York, and downright terrible down the stretch. In the last 4 weeks, Favre's average QB rating is 57.95, and he's thrown 6 picks and only 1 TD.

2. Favre has talented receivers in Lavranues Coles, Jericho Cotchery, and Dustin Keller.

3. Favre has a solid running attack to help him out. Thomas Jones is 5th in the league in rushing and has a very good 4.6 YPC average. Leon Washington averages 5.5 YPC, and is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield.

4. Favre has a good defense behind him, especially against the run (at least until lately).

In short, there are not many excuses for Favre's numbers, and Favre's numbers just aren't very good. Let's compare Favre/Rodgers/Pennington

Favre - 67% completions, 3239 yards, 21 TDs, 19 Picks, 6.7 Average, 84.0 QB Rating.
Rodgers - 63.5% Completions, 3470 Yards, 23 TDs, 12 Picks, 7.4 Average, 91.8 QB Rating. In one fewer game.
Pennington - 67% Completions, 3,453 Yards, 17 TDs, 7 Picks, 7.7 Average, 96.4 QB Rating

If Brett Favre wasn't Brett Favre, he would clearly be considered the worst of this group. Favre has once again been a turnover machine, but he's not had the efficiency or big play ability of either Rodgers or Pennington.

If you prefer advanced stats, they shake out like this:

1. Pennington - DYAR = 976, 8th overall, DVOA = 23%, 6th overall
2. Rodgers - DYAR = 818, 11th overall, DVOA = 16.3%, 11th overall
3. Favre - DYAR = 428, 19th overall, DVOA = 1.0%, 21st overall, just behind the 49ers Shaun Hill.

In short, there are no statistical measurements, other than Favre Whimsy Ratio (FWR), in which anyone can say that it is silly to claim that the Packers are better off with Rodgers, and FWR is a stat that I just made up right now. There is NO GOOD ARGUMENT that Favre is currently a better QB than Rodgers OR Chad Pennington.

The Jets added other players who addressed bigger needs (like Faneca and Jenkins) and the Packers problems have been chronicled on this site many times (here and here for instance). To the extent that Aaron Rodgers is a problem, (and he has been pretty rough late in games), he's a very, very minor problem. If anyone should be getting credit, it's Pennington. Who the hell is even on the Dolphins? Devon Besse and Greg Camarillo?

Anyway, I apologize for being a broken record, but this drives me nuts. I know people are unhinged about Favre and can't look at anything having to do with Favre in any rational way, but the fact is that we have a bunch of data this year, and that data tells us that Favre has been pretty bad on a winning team, while Rodgers has been pretty good on a losing team (which I would argue is more impressive than being good on a good team), and Pennington has been pretty good on a good team.

And again, I LIKE Favre. I really do. He is one of my all time favorite players. I own a Favre autographed football, a signed picture, and a rookie card. I've sometimes, in my weaker moments, contemplated creating a bifurcated Favre/Molitor Jersey.

But facts are facts.


Eric said...

THat's funny, as in odd and somewhat amusing. I've likened Favre to Molitor and the Brewers collapse after he was let go. Or not pursued.

I'm getting more glad that Favre landed elsewhere. Had he stayed in Green Bay he may have been sacked into crippling injury.

PaulNoonan said...

Favre and Rodgers have each been sacked 30 times this year, if memory serves.

Eric said...

although true Favre has already played this week. Actually i think Rodgers was sacked already this game

Anonymous said...

I think the real debate this brings up is about who is a bigger douchebottle between Mark Belling and Charlie Sykes. I say Sykes because I know more of his listeners.

E.S.K. said...

Last I heard Sykes doesn't pretend to know shit about football, so you hating your friends is irrelevant.