Tuesday, December 23, 2008

KUBIAK v. Reality

When Football Outsiders made their prognostications this year in Pro Football Prospectus, the projection for Aaron Rodgers was viewed by most people as very optimistic. That projection was as follows:

3729 yds, 25 TDs, 13 ints, and a rushing TD.

I discussed this with many people on the internets and in person, and most said they would be ecstatic if Rodgers could put up these kinds of numbers. Well, through 15 games Rodgers has put up this line:

3730 yards, 25 TD's, 13 ints, and 4 rushing TDs.

(Note: In the linked post at the old sports bar ESK jokingly (I think) predicted 5 rushing TDs, which is a distinct possibility).

Maybe the Pack will melt down against the Lions and Rodgers will throw 5 picks, but it looks quite likely that Rodgers will exceed this prediction by a substantial amount. (It really looks like the Outsiders were just off by a game, actually.)

The Outsiders had Greg Jennings as follows:

1044 yds, 9 TDs

In reality, through 15 games:

1191, 9 TDs

And Driver...

1033 yds, 8 TD.

In reality:

901, 4 TDs

Well, nobody's perfect, and those TDs were spread around elsewhere.

Where the Outsiders were wrong was Ryan Grant and the offensive line in general, (although they liked Brandon Jackson), however, my main point here is to show that Aaron Rodgers has exceeded any reasonable expectation, and in my opinion, he has exceeded some of the highest expectations that were set for him.


E.S.K. said...

I don't think I was joking. I've always loved Rodgers legs and I figured they'd be more willing to QB sneak with Rodgers since they have no real short yardage back.

Of course, I could have been joking, but I don't think so.

Rob said...

You just sold me a Football Prospectus for next season.

PaulNoonan said...

They should really be paying me a commission at this point.

Eric said...

Rodgers is mostly the Quarterback we hoped he would be. The only thing he isn't is experienced. This will come.

Since precision of understanding is rare in these parts i'll use small words.

Rodgers is a very good quarterback.

McCarthy is a very bad offensive coordinator. McCarthy needs to hire a good offensive coordinator.

McCarthy bears the blame for the non winning offense. Too many people blame Rodgers for McCarthy's mistakes.

Play calling has been poor. Especially the lack of bootlegs which favor a scrambling quarterback.

Last year Favre covered up crappy play calling with experience and audibles. Rodgers will learn to do this.

And I wish the Jets well. the Packers draft choice depends on it.