Friday, April 2, 2010

Sign Jermaine Dye Now

I firmly believe that Corey Hart will never be useful in a Brewer uniform again. I think tall lanky guys have short shelf lives in general (see: Sexson, Richie) and that even though Corey is still relatively young, people have adjusted to him and he hasn't adjusted back.

Last year Corey hit .260/.335/.418. The year before that he was worse. He's not a worthless player, and if you're stuck with Corey it's not a disaster, but I like the alternative a lot more.

I live in Chicago and I've seen a fair amount of Jermaine Dye. He has historically been one of the most underrated players in baseball, as well as one of the best. Outside of an injury-plagued 2003 season, Dye has produced an OPS+ in excess of 100 in every year since - get this - 1999. Usually he's been well above that. He put up a 135 in 2000, and an incredible 151 in 2006.

Dye is getting older and he is not the player he used to be. His defense has slipped of late and there is some evidence that he now wears down towards the end of the season. This makes the Brewers an ideal fit for him. On the short end of a platoon with Edmonds plus the occasional spot start while Edmonds plays center, you can probably coax an All-Star level of offense out of Dye for another year or two.

In 2008 Edmonds mashed righties to the tune of .250/.362/.521. He had a bad 2007, but crushed his opposites just as well in 2006. Jermaine Dye crushed everyone last year until August hit. he put up a monster sOPS+ of 172 in June last year. After that nagging injuries to his legs turned him into a disaster, but when healthy he hit as well as ever, and killed lefties hitting .292/.387/.508.

Both of these guys are older. Edmonds is 40, Dye is 36, and it's entirely possible that both will end up hurt or suffer a decline in performance. That said, given that Hart is the alternative, it's a risk I'm willing to take. As an added bonus, it will allow Edmonds to take more time away from Carlos Gomez.

If the Brewers can swing this deal (which I hear still might be in play despite reports to the contrary), they should do so. Right now. This is a no-brainer.


ahren said...

disagree. not a "no-brainer". definitely a "brainer".

jermaine dye pecota projections:
80% .271/.361/.502
50% .246/.327/.424
20% .241/.319/.418

corey hart:
80% .286/.353/.506
50% .266/.334/.449
20% .256/.324/.428

hart projected for better running, better d (by a lot), and significantly more pt...

i know pecota isn't the be-all-end-all, but ill take the guy whose 20th percentile performance is better than the other guy's 50th...

E.S.K. said...

I know for a fact those PECOTA projections did not watch Corey Hart swing a bat this Spring.

E.S.K. said...

Also, I think Dye's poor defense would be somewhat mitigated by Carlos Gomez...I hope so at least, dude needs to earn his roster spot somehow.

PaulNoonan said...

I will concede that it's a brainer.

That said, I still think it's a good idea. Dye with rest, I think, can still be very good.

Also, Corey, especially recently, does not have much of a platoon split.

So yes, a brainer, but I like Dye/Edmonds better than Hart or Hart/Edmonds.