Tuesday, February 3, 2009

real pecota

so, the first iteration of pecota weighted means came out recently. we can now see:
a) what they really are
b) how inaccurate my ghetto method was

weeks 269/373/442 (i was -10 pts of ops in my prediction)
cameron 254/345/472 (-6)
braun 296/362/560 (+21)
fielder 286/380/527 (+6)
hart 289/343/494 (0)
hardy 284/344/459 (-11)
hall/lamb (avg) 259/332/428 (-20)
kendall 251/320/323 (-11)

putting this all into the lineup tool at baseballmusings.com, shows that this lineup will score about 834 runs. not bad. the only NL team to score more runs than that last year was the cubs, who scored 855. second place was the phillies and mets at 799.


KL Snow said...

Actually, just dumping this into a lineup analyzer and comparing it to actual results from last season is apples and oranges...your lineup would project to 834, if every starter started all 162 games.

PaulNoonan said...

For the sake of comparison, using the Cub projections and a lineup of:


produces 806 total runs. The optimal for said lineup is 854.

So, there's your apples to apples.

PaulNoonan said...

How do you like them apples?

tracker said...

I don't understand the basis for projecting a .373 obp for Weeks. Or a .343 obp for Hart

PaulNoonan said...

Weeks is 26 an entering his prime, has a career OBP of .352, and has in the past put up OBPs of .374 (118 games in 2007) and .363 (95 games in 2006).

PECOTA like Weeks to improve on that as he enters his prime offensive years.

Same deal with Hart. At 27 he should hit his prime offense this season. His career OBP is .323 and PECOTA expects imrpovement. Hart, in 2006 and 2007 also batted .283 and .295 respectively before falling to .268 last year. His OBP is probably going to be tied to his BA to some extent, and if we see his BA regress to his former numbers, that OBP is plausibe.

ahren said...

the expressions "apples to apples" and "apples to oranges" need to go away forever. comparing apples to oranges is a totally reasonable thing to do, and perhaps makes more sense than comparing the same thing to itself...

it is true that it's a flaw in the projection that this is using every starter for 162 games, but i was just going for estimates. there are other factors too, like you get to have a better hitter than the pitcher hit about 1/3 of the time, etc. your point is certainly valid, but i think we can all agree that it's not unreasonable to think of the brewers as an 800 run ballclub this year.