Tuesday, February 10, 2009

pecota depth chart projection...

Central W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Chicago Cubs 95 67 865 751 .271 .346 .433
Milwaukee Brewers 83 79 822 808 .260 .334 .434
St. Louis Cardinals 80 82 776 784 .257 .330 .420
Cincinnati Reds 79 83 779 798 .263 .329 .416
Houston Astros 66 96 708 851 .256 .318 .404
Pittsburgh Pirates 65 97 719 887 .255 .321 .406

13 comments:

E.S.K. said...

I think Looper (mostly because of his innings) adds a couple wins to the Brewers). So that plus Hoffman, I think I'm up to 79 wins as my unofficial guess.

DannyNoonan said...

ESK,
Would you bet a 6-pack on fewer than 80 wins?

Anonymous said...

Wow. Tom H. actually blogged about the Pecota projections.

E.S.K. said...

No bets until they break camp has always been my rule.

PaulNoonan said...

This seems about right, and if we have a few players exceed their projections we can be right in the thick of the wild card race again.

tracker said...

I don't get the basis for significantly improved OBP with the same regulars plus the potential addition of Lamb as Hall's platoon mate. They're already projecting exceeded projections.

PaulNoonan said...

Nope, these are their weighted mean projections. In all their simulations, this is the result that came up most frequently.

tracker said...

From whom does it expect significant improvements in obp?

tracker said...

Never mind. Weeks, that's optinistic, but I might buy that. Hart? Trackota says he'll be closer to .300 than .344.

PaulNoonan said...

Word on the street is that Looper bumps us up to 85 wins.

E.S.K. said...

Fangraphs.com had him at 1.2 in 2007 and 1.7 in 2008, so that sounds about right.

DannyNoonan said...

If he were replacing Suppan, it would probably be a little more. Soup is below replacement level now, right?

E.S.K. said...

-0.1 last year. McClung was at 0.6