Check out this tweet. (Hat tip, BCB.)
I've been thinking the same thing as I get my various iterations of the PECOTA spreadsheets. Something isn't right here.
Here's what we know:
1. BP has been hemorrhaging talent, the latest being Joe Sheehan.
2. Nate Silver is gone, and Nate Silver, more than anyone else, is responsible for PECOTA.
3. BP has insinuated that they have attempted to further automate PECOTA, transitioning it from a bunch of somewhat disorganized spreasheets that Nate could make sense of to a more user friendly system.
I'm not going to speculate on exactly what is going wrong, but it's easy imagine several ways in which PECOTA could have gone wrong given these facts. It's been all over the map to this point, and I'm skeptical this year as well.
6 hours ago