Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Maybe Joe Morgan is Right? Statheads are BS??

How could you Joe Sheehan? Decades of number crunching, reasoned analysis and ridicule from the baseball fundamentalists all torn down with one paragraph in Baseball Prospectus on the next 300 game winner:
Oliver Perez: He's almost too easy, because of the surface comparisons to Johnson. Perez has an electric arm, but he's wildly inconsistent, especially with his command. The raw talent, however, is there for him to be of the game's best starting pitchers for a long time to come. Perez is vastly more accomplished than Johnson was at the same age, though his career has been more scattered than the Unit's was. With 56 wins under his belt at the age of 27, there is plenty of time for Perez to find himself and have a fantastic career.

If Oliver Perez pitches until he is 45 years old, he will need to win 13 games every season for the next 18 years. He has only ever won more than 13 games once in his life.


He says that Perez is "vastly more accomplished" at the age of 27 than Randy Johnson. I suppose that is correct, in-so-far as Perez has run the gamut of his entire career at this point. He's had 9 seasons as a starter, Johnson only had 4. The Unit was a late bloomer while Perez is already a has-been. In his first four 4 seasons as a starting pitcher Johnson racked up 44 wins. Ollie has 56 wins...in 9 seasons as a starting pitcher.

Ollie is averaging 5.67 innings per appearance (since you can get a win as a reliever, and Perez doesn't look to be seeing a rotation any time soon, I won't break it down by starts) while the Big Unit has been a workhorse his whole career. Over his 22 seasons he is averaging 6.75 innings per appearance. This gives Ollie a full inning less per appearance to get those 244 wins he needs to hit 300.

Even if Perez finds his mojo and becomes dominant, he would need to win 20 games per season for 12 seasons and win a couple games at 40 to hit 300. Really? This is the guy leading your list?

Oliver Perez will win 300 games around the same year Todd Van Poppel wins a Cy Young.


PaulNoonan said...

Wow, what was Joe on when he wrote that? Maybe all of the defections from BP are starting to grate on their stalwarts. He'll win 300 games in AAA before he wins 300 in the majors.

Jon said...

Sheehan has officially lost it. He just wrote a piece on how what the Mets need most is another bullpen arm. This, when our pen is #1 ERA in baseball plus might have Wagner returning, when Tim Redding with career ERA of 87 is in our rotation, when our fill-in 1B with Delgado out most of the year recently hit .153 over a 120 AB stretch. Yea sure, another decent pen arm is just what we need Joe, because 300 game winner Ollie Perez will be back to save the rotation.

PaulNoonan said...

Is Fire Joe Sheehan registered?

E.S.K. said...

there it is. write it in the style of joe morgan

you will make millions