Thursday, March 18, 2010

March Madness

It's truly a great day (provided no urgent work pops up of course). I don't have much to say, but feel free to drop any thoughts in the comments. Real quick:

Wisconsin - I like Wisconsin to go far with 3 caveats:

1. Cornell is a perimeter and Wisconsin has poor perimeter defense (really their only weakness). I'd rather face Temple in round 2.

2. Wisconsin sometimes goes ice cold. How far they go will largely be a result of how long they can not have this happen.

3. For Wisconsin, I think officiating is a huge deal. I don't mean to suggest that refs treat Wisconsin unfairly, but Wisconsin plays a "physical without fouling" style. If they run into a conservative official, it will hurt them.

Marquette - They're short, but that's nothing new.

I'm counting on the general shittiness of the Pac-10 to get Marquette into round two, but this seems like a tough matchup to me. If they can get out of the weekend they can do serious damage, as you know West Virginia wants no part of the Golden Eagles after their narrow 1-point victory over Marquette in WV earlier this year.

That's all I got.


Chris said...

not a great start for the Big East 2 down and almost lost another.

Eric said...

marquette is my first sweet 16 loss.

I knew georgetown would lose. They were just gassed.

Chris said...

Jason Bohannon sucks ass

Eric said...

Looks like i've finished the first round with only one sweet 16 loss. Well done Marquette.

Eric said...

Down goes Kansas!
Down goes Kansas!

My first final four loss. Still in second place for potential points though.

TD said...

I have to admit, I've been a little surprised at everyone's concern about Cornell. No doubt this team can shoot the 3. But the perception that this plays into a Wisconsin weakness is simply not supported by the facts (as found on KemPom.Com).

When you look at how teams score against Wisconsin, by point distribution, only 21.8% come from the 3. Only 25 teams in the country give up less points, as a percentage of total allowed, from outside the arc. I don't care what percentage they shoot, they just don't get that many open looks. No team that relies as heavily on the 3 as a source for their offense as Cornell does has yet to beat the Badgers. Minnesota is the only team they have played that comes close to Cornell's reliance on it in that game, Minnesota won by dominating the offensive glass, not because they were burying 3's all night. When the Badgers lose, its usually because they give up a lot of offensive rebounds, with their last loss to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament being the exception. If you want to worry about something, I say worry about keeping Cornell off the glass more than their ability to hit the 3.

Another thing worth noting is that Cornell is just not very good defensively. They're adjusted defensive efficiency is 99.3, putting them in the middle of the NCAA Div 1 Schools. Wisconsin has played 12 games against schools with a 99.3 % Defensive efficiency or higher this season, and are 11-1. The lone loss,an overtime loss to Green Bay is a game in which Wisconsin still scored 84 points,and operated at a very efficient 113.3 Offensive efficiency rate. In the other 11 games Wisconsin averaged (roughly) an offensive efficiency of 125.3, and nearly 70 points per game.

As much as the experts wanted to rave about Temple going into this tournament, they were not a particularly good offensive team. Despite the common perception to the contrary, Wisconsin is (17th in adjusted offensive efficiency). It's also worth noting, that Cornell's performance on Friday was off the charts good (130.2), which is nearly 15 points higher than their season average ... to repeat that kind of offensive efficiency in consecutive games, particularly against another top 10 defense would be astounding.

Obviously, Wisconsin could lose this game ... but I will frankly be shocked if they do.

Chris said...

Only bright spot I never have to watch Jason Bohannon in a Badger Uniform every again I am free Bohannona and Mike Cameron in one year been a hell of a 2010

Jon said...

LOL KenPom, his "formulas" are a joke. anyone who takes his log5 seriously doesn't understand good forecasting

Eric said...


Jon said...

Lol KenPom, this should tell you everything you need to know about his joke of a system (if you couldn't already tell by its retardedly high % odds for Wisconsin and BYU national titles).

A Log5 update

odds to win title

Duke - 32%
Kentucky - 13%
Cuse - 11%
Ohio St - 11%
K State - 8%

Vegas sure is stupid having Duke only tied for 2nd biggest favorite, KenPom must be making a fortune!