Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Revisiting The Past

For some reason I thought it necessary to put the following in my Google Calendar:
Tracker predicts 88 win on jan21
I went back to find the post on which this prediction was made. It makes for interesting reading.

: It seems as though Melvin is done making any substantial moves for the time being. With Hardy resigned, Fielder not on the trading block, and not looking for starting pitching, it looks like this is the team. I really would have liked to see some additional starting pitching, some outfield depth, or another infielder as those all seem to be places where the team could still improve.

: I am disappointed, just because the team has a few obvious warts which could be handled in low cost fashion, in my opinion. Oh well.

These past few years have been based on some very good prospects. Success this year, if there is to be any, will quite possibly rest on the shoulders of players who do not make the team out of camp, and who are hardly "can't miss" prospects. I think they're roughly a .500 team as currently constituted, and unless the Cubs have a disaster (which is possible, by the way) it's going to take a wild card to get into the playoffs again. That sounds like a tall order without one more pitcher and some extra OBP.

: They look like last year's team (minus CC), a little better in the pen, no different offensively, no different defensively, and no significant difference in the starting rotation, in fact perhaps slightly better. The latter assumes Yo = Sheets, and Bush is second half Bush. If so, they're not a division contender, but at 87-88 wins, a wild card contender.

Speaking of low cost, Verducci reports the Mets offer to Sheets is close to the Penny offer (1 yr, $5 mil, club option) Sheets wants 2-18 with his option.

If Melvin had offered Sheets 2-18 at some point last year, I think Sheets would've punched him.

: brewers are more likely to improve than dis-improve (un-improve? a-prove?) at:

sp (gallardo)
sp (parra)

don't fret.

ESK (from a different post): Real Brewers Prediction: 82 wins, a terrible bullpen, top 5 in extra base hits but bottom 5 in OBP...again

If you recall I was extremely pessimistic, but preseason number crunching turned me around into thinking the Brewers would finish around .500. Originally I thought they'd have 78.

1 comment:

tracker said...

Let's entertain the possibility that I may have been somewhat optimistic.

Injuries to Bush and Suppan are the primary culprit. Each had been pitching well prior to getting hurt, and the Brewers were 7-14 in games affected by their injuries (ie, games in which they pitched hurt prior to going on DL, plus games started by replacements). Arguably, they're still losing games due to Bush's injury, and the fact that in only one of the replacement starts did a starter work 6 innings further stressed an already taxed bullpen and made other games less winnable.

They were 18-13 in Bush/Suppan starts prior, so a 12-9 expectation in the injury starts is reasonable and I'd skew to 13-8 due to the bullpen effect.

Six games better makes them 70-62, tracking toward an 86-win season.

I also failed to forecast the regression of Parra. While I didn't expect them to win the majority of his starts, he certainly projected at better than 9-14. Two games better, or 11-12, would've been a reasonable expectation.

Therefore, my prediction is exactly right.