Hair of the Dog, 9/30/08

Lets just enjoy this a little bit longer

Did anyone go to the rally yesterday? I couldn't make it, but apparently 14000 other people did. It sounds like it was a good time.

Gallardo was named pitcher for the first playoff game against the Phillies. I think Sveum's first move as a manager in the playoffs was a good one. Besides Sabathia, I think Gallardo gives us the best chance of winning against Hamels, although it is a bit of a gamble. Gallardo is 0-0 on the year with a 1.88ERA in 4 starts. In his short career he's 9-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 121K/45BB. The Phillies are sending left handed pitcher Cole Hamels, who is 14-10 on the year with a 3.09ERA and 196K/53BB. His career numbers are similar at 3.43 and 518K/144BB. Hamels is a lefty, but as ESK pointed out, his splits are the reverse of what they should be. He's better against righties (671 OPS) than he is against lefties (742OPS).

It's impossible to say for sure, but I have a hard time believing that Ned Yost would have made the move to start Yo in the first game. With Suppan's experience, he seems like he would have been the Yost choice, never mind that he's not nearly as good at pitching as Yo. I think Sveum's managerial decisions thus far have been mostly sound. He still puts stock in things like experience--adding Durham and Counsell to his standard rotation for example--but mostly when it is backed by numbers. By the way, Counsell's OBP in September is 450.

The rest of the pitching match-ups will be CC Sabathia vs. Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55ERA, 163K/65BB) and then whoever our third pitcher is against Jamie Moyers (16-7, 3.71ERA, 123K/62BB). Maybe I'm biased, but I feel pretty good about CC vs. Myers, and Moyers does have normal lefty splits. I think we can take this series.

Most pundits are picking the Phillies over the Brewers. Here's ESPN's game preview for tomorrow. All 10 of their "experts" pick the Phillies, but it's probably because they list Gallardo's record as 0-10 instead of 0-0. That's a big difference. I'd love to do a position by position comparison, but I'll leave that sort of thing to Paul, or E. But I will say that I think the Brewers and the Phillies are a lot closer than most people seem to think. They're 3rd in the NL in OPS (770), we're 6th (757). They're 1st in home runs (214) and we're 3rd (198). On the other side of the ball, we're actually a little better than them. We're 2nd in ERA (3.85) and they're 4th (3.88). In WHIP, we're 4th (1.33) and they're 6th (1.36). That's with Sheets, but it's without Gallardo and without Sabathia for the first half of the season. If it goes to 5 games, I think we'll take 'em.

Aaron Rodgers wants to play on Sunday. When Rodgers went down, after looking bad against the Bucs, many Packer fans were worried about the season. With a number of other injuries, and that old guy in New York having a huge game, it had a lot of people worried about the future of the franchise. Not that is should quell all of our fears, but Rodgers says he wants to play on Sunday against the Bears.

"Speaking with Aaron this morning, he has every intention on playing," McCarthy said Monday in Green Bay. "But I think Wednesday's practice will be a pretty good indicator for us. It's just something we'll have to continue to rehab and see where we are on Wednesday."

Rodgers has been tagged injury prone, and maybe he is, but I think the fact that he returned to last weeks game and seems genuinely intent on playing this weekend says something about the guy's toughness.