Hair of the Dog, Wednesday, 9/3/08

Ugh, that wasn't very fun. The Crew dropped game two to the Mets 6-5 in an extra-innings battle. The loss included 2 errors that led to 2 unearned runs, 2 bad calls (I think) and like 22 guys left on base. On the plus side, Manny Parra added a little excitement with 2 doubles. Everywhere I look, I see the #2. The Phillies and Cards both won bringing them to 4.5 games and 5.5 games back in the Wild Card, respectively. The Cubs lost too, so we remain 4.5 games back on them in the Central.

To compound last night's frustrations, we were sitting in front of three guys that were either really wasted or really really really really stupid. Sadly, I never saw any of them drink a beer so I think it was the latter. They were talking amongst themselves the entire game and doing so as if they wanted all of section 228 to hear them. Topics of conversation--in order of least offensive/annoying to most--included the following: "We wend to Marquette Law School," "should Sarah Palin's daughter get an abortion?," "Prince Fielder should bunt here," I'd take Gwynn in center field over Cameron any day because Cameron just isn't a hitter," and "Prince Fielder should bunt here too." It was really quite jaw-dropping. So thanks guys in section 228, Row 9, Seats 5, 6 and 7, for being totally annoying.

One plus from yesterday was that Johnathon Niese did not light us up (3 IP, 7 H, 5 ER 4BB, 2K, 1 HR). Prior to the start of yesterday's game, I kept hearing chatter about how the Brewers get lit up by pitchers making their major league debut. I always asked if there was data to support that claim. Thanks to The Jay at Brew Crew Ball, there is. Basically, the Brewers are 21-27 against pitchers making their MLB debut going back to 1969. That's 14-16 in games where the pticher gets a decision. The Brewers have outscored their opponents by 14 points in these games. Since moving to the NL, it's even better for us. Read the whole thing.

In other NL Central News, the Cubs not only lost to the Astros yesterday, Carlos Zambrano, who's start was delayed from Sunday to yesterday due to a "tired arm" left the game in the 5th and will be examined by doctors.

Also, I saw Bill Hall at Starbuck's yesterday. He was waiting for a grande caramel machiato.

That's all I got for today. H of the D brought to you by Miller Lite, because that's all I ever get at Miller Park. Go Brewers.

Yo: Savior

Tom H provides some useful info; Yovanni Gallardo is about to throw a simulated game.

This is great news, and if they can get Yo ready to go, they should put him in the pen for the playoffs. I cannot understate how much better this would make the Brewers (assuming he's the same old Yo).

The playoffs truly are a different animal than the regular season. This is covered in depth in BP's book, Baseball Between The Numbers in the chapter entitled: Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work In The Playoffs?"

in short, the reason is as follows. Playoff teams all have (in general) good offenses. There are fewer easy outs in any given playoff game. This means that balls put into play will turn into hits (and HRs) more frequently than in the regular season. As a result, strikeout pitchers excel in the postseason, whereas those that pitch to contact tend to struggle compared to the regular season. BP has developed a fun little stat to predict postseason success called "Secret Sauce" which aggregates strength of defense, strikeout rate, and closer). It tends to work quite well. I should also point out that in the playoffs, managers tend to make more optimal use of their closers (think of Mariano Rivera, or Keith Foulke recording multiple inning saves).

Anyway, of the 8 playoff bound teams (as of right now) the Brewers rank 6th (a lower score is better):

1. Boston - 16
2. Anaheim - 17
3. Chicago Cubs - 17
4. Tampa Bay - 26
5. Chicago White Sox - 33
6. Milwaukee - 37
7. Arizona - 40
8. New York Mets - 40

Papelbon, K-Rod, Marmol and Wood. The Brewers currently have nothing to compete with that...unless Yo can make it back. Yo was the staff ace until he got hurt. He's a strikeout monster with great command. 1.250 WHIP (1.269 last year), 1.80 ERA (3.67 last year), a career 114/43 K/BB ratio (basically 3/1).

Yo is exactly what you need in the playoffs. If he can recover enough to be in the bullpen for high leverage situations, the Brewers chances will improve drastically. Starting rotations are not the only part of the pitching staff that shortens up in the playoffs. Bullpens do to.

I'll go into battle with Gallardo, Torres, and Shouse as a LOOGY any day of the week.

Brewers-Mets, 9/2/08 Open Thread

The lineup is the usual against rookie left-hander Jonathon Niese (ML Debut/5-1, 3.40 ERA in AAA). Niese is making his major league debut against the Brewers, which many Brewer fans think is bad news. I'm guessing that that's just people with selective memories. The Crew is sending Manny Parra (10-6, 4.00 ERA, 67 BB/127 SO), so it'll be a lefty dual of sorts. Here's the lineup:

2B Rickie Weeks
SS J.J. Hardy
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF Corey Hart
CF Mike Cameron
3B Bill Hall
C Jason Kendall
LHP Manny Parra

I'll be at the game tonight, so I'm not sure whether this will be much of an open thread. Either way, go Brewers!

Also, in a more interesting note, Tom H. makes this observation in his line-up blog:

And here's an interesting little development. As I write this blog, right-hander Yovani Gallardo is throwing a simulated game to a handful of Brewers hitters. Gallardo has been out since May 1 with a torn ACL in his right knee and the Brewers have maintained it is a long shot that he will pitch again this season.

But to be at the point of throwing a simulated game means he's not that far away from being ready to pitch in games. The problem the Brewers have is that the minor league season is over and therefore he can't go on a rehab assignment there.

Might we see Gallardo again this year? And, if the Brewers make the playoffs, would they include him on their playoff roster? Because he is on the DL he could be added to the playoff roster. All interesting questions that I'm sure won't be answered at this time for fear of causing a letdown should Gallardo not make it.

More Gagne Bashing

From Caleb Peiffer:

New York came from two runs down to beat Milwaukee 4-2 in yesterday afternoon's opener thanks to Carlos Delgado, who hit a two-run shot in the eighth inning off Eric Gagne despite what the slugging first baseman called "probably the worst shadows that I've been involved with since I've been in professional baseball." The blast continued Delgado's surprising resurgence—since June 27 he has 20 homers and 60 RBI, more of each than any other NL player in that span—and also continued the nightmare season of Eric Gagne, whose ERA rose to 6.81. Although 26 of Gagne's 39 outings have been clean, he has given up multiple runs in eight games, including three or more on five occasions. As a result, the expensive import has been worse than replacement level this year, contributing a WXRL of -0.42, the lowest mark on the Brewers. Gagne has also given up 10 home runs, a higher HR/9 (2.5) than every pitcher except Oscar Villarreal (2.9), who was released by the Astros for his efforts.

Hair of the Dog, Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Can we just change his name to Eric Sunk-Cost?

This is the Brewers' Baseball Reference page. Here is a comprehensive list of pitchers on this page with worse ERA+s than Eric Gagne’s sparkling 64:

1. Julian Tavarez – 50 (Not on team)
2. Derrick Turnbow – 28 (Not on team)

Aaaand that’s it. Eric Gagne is not only the worst pitcher on the Brewers, he is BY FAR the worst pitcher on the Brewers. No one else is even close. Tim Dillard would be next in line, but he has been a full 20% better than Gagne.

The fact is that Eric Gagne should not longer be on the team. It may have been worth taking a chance on the once dominant steroid user, but in nearly a full season he has not shown himself to be more valuable than anyone using any metric. He has the worst regular ERA on the team at 6.81, he’s struck out 29, but he’s walked 19 in only 35.66 innings. He’s given up 10 (TEN) HRs! Righties kill him (.338/.427/.634), and lefties hit him hard (.247/.337/..479). He is positively awful at home (8.05 ERA) and merely terrible on the road (5.40 ERA).

Some think he’s improved since the All-Star break, but he was so terrible in the first half that an improvement was almost a statistical certainty, and if you improve from opponents crushing you to the tune of .305/.411/.558 to having them only crush you to the tune of .265/.321/.551, well, that’s really not worth talking about.

Perhaps the worst thing about Gagne is his complete inability to put guys away. After being down 0-2 in the count against Gagne, batters this year (over 33 PAs), are hitting .258/.303/.645. That’s amazing, and shows a complete lack of ability to miss bats and take advantage of being up in the count.

The only reason to continue to trot Gagne out there is that he makes $10 million, and that’s only a reason if you’re an idiot. He should definitely not be on the playoff roster, and really, he should be cut tomorrow.

Ben's Groin

I suspect that removing Ben Sheets was more precautionary than reactionary, and that he'll be fine. For a team with a 94.6% chance of making the playoffs, this is a smart move. Just as the Cubs are giving Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden a few extra days to work through some nagging injuries (at least they hope Zambrano's injuries are of the nagging variety), there is no reason to take any unnecessary risks with one of your two most important post-season players.

Plus, even though the Brewers lost yesterday, the Cardinals, Cubs, and Phillies all lost as well.

Ned’s Short Memory

“That was my first no-hitter. I could have told my grandkids about it."

-Ned Yost, commenting on CC Sabathia’s near no-hitter.

Ned, you can tell your grandkids about Justin Verlander if it’s that important to you.

The Surprising Packer Cuts

Jon Ryan, we hardly knew you. I'm quite surprised at this. Frost is supposedly a good directional punter, which I like (and I'll believe when I see) but Ryan's power isn't something you can teach. This is a gamble.

I'm also shocked that both Noah Herron and Vernand Morency were cut. I figured that one of the two would probably make the team, as both are useful pass-blockers and receivers. Congratulations to Kregg Lumpkin, who managed to beat out the incumbents.

This raises interesting questions about 3rd down. Will Brandon Jackson get Aaron Rodgers killed in pass protection? Only time will tell.

If he does, Matt Flynn will step in instead of Brian Brohm, who had what can only be described as a disappointing preseason. I still think that Brohm is the more talented player, and will eventually regain the spot, but Flynn has clearly outplayed him so far. Who knows, maybe they have something here.

Evridge is OK, So Far.

My impression of the Badgers is that they’re the same old Badgers. Their mountainous offensive line will open huge holes for PJ Hill, and the rest is uncertain.

Allan Evridge looks like he has the physical tools to be great. I saw a strong arm, a tight spiral, and excellent accuracy when he had time. I also saw one of the worst and most damaging interceptions I have seen when Evridge failed to put the ball on his receiver’s outside shoulder in the endzone, resulting in an endzone interception and a near pick-6. The Badgers were a few stupid mistakes (Evridge’s pick plus PJ Hill’s fumble out of the end zone) from putting up the type of gaudy blowout against Akron that Penn St. did against Coastal Carolina.

The defense looked a step slow at times. It will be interesting to see how they handle a competent offense. I am not looking forward to seeing the Illinois spread later this year. Take the "over" in that game.

Still, they can control the ground and control the clock, and that will get you far in life.

Get Those Fantasy Lineups In Early!

The Redskins and Giants kick off the NFL season this Thursday. Don’t forget!

Today’s Hair of the Dog

Is brought to you by Magic Hat #9, one of the best beers I’ve ever had. Also excellent with Guinness as a Black Magic.



Also, Hamlet 2 is awesome.

Brewers-Mets Open Thread-9/1/08

The Brewers start off a three-game series against the Mets today at Miller Park. The Mets send ace Johan Santana (12-7, 2.70 ERA, 50 BB/159 SO) against Ben Sheets (12-7, 3.05 ERA, 40 BB/144 SO). These two met back in April, and Sheets came out on top. Let's hope he can do it again. The lineups is the usual:

2B Rickie Weeks
SS JJ Hardy
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF Corey Hart
CF Mike Cameron
3B Bill Hall
C Jason Kendall
P Ben Sheets

We'll have some new faces on the bench today with the September call-ups, including top prospects Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome. Other call-ups include Brad Nelson, Mitch Stetter, Tim Dillard, Mark DiFelice, Joe Dillon, Tony Gwynn Jr. and Vinny Rottino.

Hair of the Dog, Labor Day 9/1/08

The Brewers capped off another sweep of the Bucs on Sunday to land them 5.5 games up in the Wildcard and 4.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. With 26 games to go, things are looking alright.

Last Friday's win at PNC Park involved another strong performance from Dave Bush and another bomb from Ryan Braun. On Saturday, the Brewers routed the Pirates 11-3. The Brewers had 16 hits and Suppan allowed two earned runs in seven innings. On Sunday, CC Sabathia threw a one-hitter (arguably a no-hitter) and the Crew again trounced the Pirates 7-0. The one hit came when CC himself bobbled a bunt and was unable to make the throw to first. Many people seem to think it was an error, and I'd agree, although I'd also say it was a close call. Yost is irate and the Brewers are appealing.

Meanwhile, the Badgers opened their season with an ass-kicking or Akron, 38-17. PJ Hill did most of the damage, rushing for 211 yards and a couple of scores. Beating Akron was expected, but still a promising start. It certainly could have been worse.

Also, Brett Favre is being kind of a jerk again:

Thompson flew to Favre's Mississippi home, and the quarterback thought the general manager was there to ask him to come back. Instead, Thompson told him that the team was going to do something special for him: dismantle his locker and send it to him.

"That was the craziest thing I ever heard of," Favre said. "What the hell am I going to do with a locker anyway? So, I said, 'OK, Ted, that's great."'

and

"There's no guarantees I come back and I play as well as I did last year, but if you're a betting man and you said, 'OK, who gives us the best chance to win right now?' and this is not bragging, but I would think I would," said Favre, who threw for 4,155 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. "Aaron may play great and then they all look like geniuses, but to not welcome me back -- and I'm just assuming -- for fear of upsetting Aaron, not only now, but in the future, is totally ridiculous. Totally ridiculous."

Awww, poor Brett. Did we stop paying attention to you for a few minutes? We're sorry. Nice interview. Really classy.

In quasi-political/quasi-sports news, Republican presidential candidate John McCain chose Alaskan local sports caster Sarah Palin as his running mate. Interesting: