Tuesday, February 10, 2009

pecota depth chart projection...

Central W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Chicago Cubs 95 67 865 751 .271 .346 .433
Milwaukee Brewers 83 79 822 808 .260 .334 .434
St. Louis Cardinals 80 82 776 784 .257 .330 .420
Cincinnati Reds 79 83 779 798 .263 .329 .416
Houston Astros 66 96 708 851 .256 .318 .404
Pittsburgh Pirates 65 97 719 887 .255 .321 .406
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13 comments:

  1. E.S.K.February 10, 2009 at 1:37 PM

    I think Looper (mostly because of his innings) adds a couple wins to the Brewers). So that plus Hoffman, I think I'm up to 79 wins as my unofficial guess.

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  2. DannyNoonanFebruary 10, 2009 at 2:08 PM

    ESK,
    Would you bet a 6-pack on fewer than 80 wins?

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  3. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2009 at 2:59 PM

    Wow. Tom H. actually blogged about the Pecota projections.

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  4. E.S.K.February 10, 2009 at 3:06 PM

    No bets until they break camp has always been my rule.

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  5. PaulNoonanFebruary 10, 2009 at 3:11 PM

    This seems about right, and if we have a few players exceed their projections we can be right in the thick of the wild card race again.

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  6. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2009 at 4:11 PM

    I don't get the basis for significantly improved OBP with the same regulars plus the potential addition of Lamb as Hall's platoon mate. They're already projecting exceeded projections.

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  7. PaulNoonanFebruary 10, 2009 at 5:05 PM

    Nope, these are their weighted mean projections. In all their simulations, this is the result that came up most frequently.

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  8. AnonymousFebruary 11, 2009 at 8:49 AM

    From whom does it expect significant improvements in obp?

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  9. AnonymousFebruary 11, 2009 at 9:00 AM

    Never mind. Weeks, that's optinistic, but I might buy that. Hart? Trackota says he'll be closer to .300 than .344.

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  10. PaulNoonanFebruary 11, 2009 at 9:59 AM

    Word on the street is that Looper bumps us up to 85 wins.

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  11. E.S.K.February 11, 2009 at 10:24 AM

    Fangraphs.com had him at 1.2 in 2007 and 1.7 in 2008, so that sounds about right.

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  12. DannyNoonanFebruary 11, 2009 at 10:52 AM

    If he were replacing Suppan, it would probably be a little more. Soup is below replacement level now, right?

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  13. E.S.K.February 11, 2009 at 11:09 AM

    -0.1 last year. McClung was at 0.6

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