KUBIAK v. Reality

When Football Outsiders made their prognostications this year in Pro Football Prospectus, the projection for Aaron Rodgers was viewed by most people as very optimistic. That projection was as follows:

3729 yds, 25 TDs, 13 ints, and a rushing TD.

I discussed this with many people on the internets and in person, and most said they would be ecstatic if Rodgers could put up these kinds of numbers. Well, through 15 games Rodgers has put up this line:

3730 yards, 25 TD's, 13 ints, and 4 rushing TDs.

(Note: In the linked post at the old sports bar ESK jokingly (I think) predicted 5 rushing TDs, which is a distinct possibility).

Maybe the Pack will melt down against the Lions and Rodgers will throw 5 picks, but it looks quite likely that Rodgers will exceed this prediction by a substantial amount. (It really looks like the Outsiders were just off by a game, actually.)

The Outsiders had Greg Jennings as follows:

1044 yds, 9 TDs

In reality, through 15 games:

1191, 9 TDs

And Driver...

1033 yds, 8 TD.

In reality:

901, 4 TDs

Well, nobody's perfect, and those TDs were spread around elsewhere.

Where the Outsiders were wrong was Ryan Grant and the offensive line in general, (although they liked Brandon Jackson), however, my main point here is to show that Aaron Rodgers has exceeded any reasonable expectation, and in my opinion, he has exceeded some of the highest expectations that were set for him.