Friday, January 30, 2009

Brewers Sign Stetter as LOOGY

According to TH, Mitch Stetter is likely to be the go to lefty out of the pen after he signed a minor league deal yesterday.

I don't mind Stetter.  He was an effective reliever last year in his 30 appearances.  I do, however, question the logic of using him as a LOOGY considering he has performed better against rhb than lhb over his (very short) career.

Does anyone know if he had more pronounced splits in the minors, or if there is a database out there that provides minor league splits?

Thursday, January 29, 2009

The Undercover Economist on NFL Overtime

Tim Harford proposes an auction:

An even more elegant solution to the overtime problem was proposed in 2002 by Chris Quanbeck, an electrical engineer (and Green Bay Packers fan). Quanbeck's idea was to auction off possession of the ball in the natural currency of the game: field position. The team that was willing to begin closest to its own goal line would receive the privilege of possession.

Football's number crunchers reckon that this "privilege" turns dubious about 15 to 20 yards away from your own goal line. That is, the expected value of having the ball so far back is negative—it's more likely that your opponent will score before you do. But it's not clear that the same would be true in overtime, when teams would be attempting to get within field-goal range rather than trying for touchdowns. If this system were implemented, it might take a couple of seasons for a consensus to develop about how far back is too far back. Still, everyone would be trying to work that out from a position of equal ignorance.


I like it. He also mentions MDS's pizza-splitting solution, but claims the auction is fairer still, as the "splitting" solution still conveys an advantage to the team that picks second. In an auction, the decision is simultaneous, and no team has an advantage.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Badgers Backed Into A Corner

The Badgers dropped a nailbiter at home to Purdue, and in doing so stretched their losing streak to 5 games, and unprecedented number under Bo Ryan.

The biggest problem with this Badger squad is that no one can create their own shot. Hughes is too content to hoist up bad shots, Landry can be stopped by bigger forwards, and none of the younger guys (with the possible exception of Jordan Taylor) are very athletic. Last night you saw the Badgers put the clamps on Purdue for a good 5 minute stretch near the end of the second half, but they were unable to capitalize offensively, as they settled for several contested lay-up attempts off of the dribble. Keaton Nakivil was a bright spot, especially from behind the arc, but ultimately, Purdue was able to create open looks for their long-range shooters and Robbie Hubble buried the dagger.

The Badgers simply aren’t very that good this year. They still play fundamentally sound basketball (most of the time; there were some serious lapses yesterday), it’s just that they don’t have an Alando Tucker or Brian Butch to fall back on when things aren’t working.

That said, the Badgers have an easier stretch coming up. The best thing that they have going for them is that they don’t have to play at Michigan State or Minnesota until the very end of the season, and if they can regroup, they might be able to put up a few wins before then. If MSU and Minn were scheduled for this weekend and nest week, the losing streak would likely reach at least 7 and we could all kiss the NCAA tournament goodbye. As it is, they play at Northwestern, come home for Illinois, and then travel to face an improved Penn State over their next three games. That is followed by a home stand against Iowa and Ohio State.

I think the NCAA tournament looks like a longshot at this point, but it’s not over yet. While there are no good 5-game losing streaks, two of those losses were to a Purdue team that just seems to have their number, 4 were against ranked teams, (Purdue twice, Illinois, and Minnesota), and the other was a narrow loss at Iowa. You schedule matters a lot, and Bucky should show some improvement over the next 5 games just based on schedule.

Still, they could have used last night’s game. They lack a signature win, in my opinion, and if they make their way onto the NCAA tournament bubble, the lack of a big win is likely to keep them out.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Marquette v. Notre Dame

There is an excellent college basketball game this evening between the Golden Eagles and Fighting Irish. Marquette has yet to lose a game in the brutal Big East and has managed to climb in the polls all the way to 8th. Notre Dame has been reeling a bit lately, having lost 3 straight games (all to ranked opponents). They've also typically struggled against Marquette, having lost 8 of their last 11.

That said, Notre Dame is very tough at home, and this should be a compelling matchup between Marquette's excellent trio of guards (Matthews, McNeal, James), and Notre Dame's inside presence, led by reigning Big East player of the year, Luke Harangody.

Marquette's biggest weakness is on the inside. Their best "big" is the 6-foot-6 Lazar Hayward, and Marquette typically struggles with talented big men like Harangody, but this season their guards have been up to the task, making up for their inside deficiencies with excellent shooting from beyond the arc.

Marquette and Notre Dame used to be huge rivals, and one of the best things about the enormous Big East is that this rivalry may flourish again.

Plus nobody likes Notre Dame.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Weekend Odd Sports

1. Curling is fun. It's also much harder than it looks. Walking on ice is quite tiring, especially while sweeping the entire time. Throwing the rock requires a great deal of flexibility.

I would highly recommend giving it a shot sometime.

2. Fedor Emelianenko is a bad, bad man.

Redd Is Done

And unfortunately, the Bucks are probably done too.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Counsel is a Brewer again.

According to Tom H.

The deal is for a million bucks. I'm not sure what other options are available, unless we could get Cirillo out of the booth.