The World Baseball Classic is Awesome

The Netherlands beat the Dominican powerhouse twice.  TWICE!!  There have been a ton of excellent games; US-Canada, every NET game, last nights Cuba-Australia game, Korea-Japan...this tournament is excellent.

The US team has a bunch of give-a-shit in em this time around and it's pretty obvious that every other team does as well (aside from DR...hahah Marmol!!)  This time the players care and you should too, because it is very good baseball.

Tonight's games look pretty great as well as rematches abound.  Netherlands takes on Puerto Rico at 4:30 and US against Venezuela at 6:30.  Neither is an elimination game, but seeding is pretty important with Cuba, Japan and Korea lurking.

If you can stay up for it, Australia takes on Mexico in an elimination game at 9 tonight.  Go Aussies!!

Two Things: The Death Of The Hot Hand And Wagering

First, there is no such thing as a hot hand in basketball:

John Huizinga, who, when he's not teaching economics at the University of Chicago, serves as Yao Ming's agent, delivered a fairly ironclad analysis showing that the hot-hand phenomenon almost certainly doesn't exist, and that players who have just made a jumper are far more likely to take and miss a jumper on the next trip -- what might be called the Jamal Crawford phenomenon.

Huizinga studied high-volume shooters over the past five seasons and took note of players who had made a jump shot on the previous trip. On the subsequent trip, they shot about 16 percent more often and converted 3.5 percent less of those shots. The finding was statistically significant and pointed to a tendency by players to act as if they were hot after one made J … and a counterproductive tendency to feed the allegedly hot hand by both the player and his teammates.

Proving that something doesn't exist is always vastly more difficult than proving it does, but Huizinga's analysis hammered the hot-hand theory from so many angles that its proponents are reeling. And as luck would have it, the scenario played out at the end of the Boston-Orlando game: The Celtics ran a play to feed their hot hand, Ray Allen, and he missed a difficult 3-pointer after a strong contest by Dwight Howard that would have tied the game.

Interestingly, Huizinga's study showed this phenomenon was almost entirely confined to perimeter players -- most likely because it's far more difficult for post players to ignore the offense and call their own number. (Though I suspect Zach Randolph and Dirk Nowitzki may be exceptions).

Second, we occasionally make friendly wagers around here. (In fact, I believe I still owe E like 3 beers.) This site seems very well suited to keeping track of said wagers.

(H/T, MR)

I love the MLB Network

But this is just sad

Cactus League game thread: Brewers vs. Giants

It's Manny Parra vs. Barry Zito today.

Rickie Weeks 2B
Craig Counsell 3B
J.J. Hardy SS
Prince Fielder 1B
Mike Cameron CF
Lorenzo Cain RF
Chris Duffy LFJ
ason Kendall C
Manny Parra LHP

Annoying and nonsensical: Hardy won't move

I read this article on Escobar with a fair bit of annoyance. Specifically, Hardy's attitude:

That leaves Hardy as the man to move, either to third or second base. But there is no wavering by Hardy when he discusses the possibility. He wants to play short.

"If the Brewers want to use him, I feel like I'll still be playing shortstop somewhere," Hardy said. "Just not with Milwaukee. There's nothing I can do about it, so it's one of those things I don't worry about.

"But no, I don't see myself moving (positions) anytime soon."

Dude. I could see Hardy being a little hesitant to move to third, because he's more valuable as a SS with an excellent bat than a 3rd basemen, where his bat doesn't stand out as much. I can see that move possible affecting his bottom line (clearly where his head is at with the possibility). However, a move to second probably makes him more money. At 25 years old, Hardy's numbers look to be tracking pretty well with Chase, and that is the type of contract Hardy would be looking at as a second basemen. Double digit millions are in the future for JJ at second. While he may get the same at shortstop, he clearly won't be less valuable. Defensively it is an easier position to play as well. I don't get the refusal to even consider moving.

For all you folks that concern yourself with clubhouse atmosphere and good character guys, this sort of selfishness might be cause for concern.

Brewers v. Indians: Here's your lineup

1. Cain LF
2. Counsell SS
3. Cameron CF
4. Fielder 1B
5. McGehee 3B
6. Nixon RF
7. Lucroy C
8. Gamel DH
9. Iribarren 2B

Bush RHP

It's odd to think that even with Lawrie moving to second base, catching is now a position of strength in the Brewers' minor league system between Lucroy and Salome. I'm a Salome fan myself, and would like to see him get more time behind the plate in spring training rather than DHing or pinch hitting, but at the very least, the end of the Jason Kendall era is on the horizon.

Brewers vs. Australia open thread.

Seth McClung gets the start for the Brewers in their exhibition game against Australia this afternoon. Here's the line-up:

2B Rickie Weeks
LF Chris Duffy
SS JJ Hardy
1B Prince Fielder
RF Corey Hart
CF Mike Cameron
C Jason Kendall
3B Casey McGehee
DH Mat Gamel