tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post8041834272501589318..comments2024-03-15T02:19:47.181-05:00Comments on Brewed Sports: Regarding BuntingDannyNoonanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12965127114354857721noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-45775118309722614822009-06-10T22:45:03.382-05:002009-06-10T22:45:03.382-05:00I was thrilled to see flak spelled correctlyI was thrilled to see flak spelled correctlyErichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07014233410007615111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-83771138290029765022009-06-09T12:00:23.019-05:002009-06-09T12:00:23.019-05:00And to Jon, yeah, I agree with all of that. I def...And to Jon, yeah, I agree with all of that. I defend non-bunting strategies vociferously just because I feel like many people have a love affair with bunting regardless of situation. It's not gospel, but it's a good guideline to work off of.PaulNoonanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01600099270280639424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-85756185811390713552009-06-09T11:57:06.332-05:002009-06-09T11:57:06.332-05:00There's a chart for that too. It's pretty...There's a chart for that too. It's pretty comprehensive. It even takes into account the % of bunts that result in double plays and outright singles.PaulNoonanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01600099270280639424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-56763485689948024852009-06-09T11:21:01.663-05:002009-06-09T11:21:01.663-05:00Do the BP calculations presume the success of the ...Do the BP calculations presume the success of the sacrifice bunt?trackernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-83591946841656258312009-06-09T08:08:15.610-05:002009-06-09T08:08:15.610-05:00I agree in general, but these win expectancies can...I agree in general, but these win expectancies can't be treated as gospel, since they are averages of myriads of situations. For instance, if the batters coming up behind the potential bunter aren't very good, that must make bunting worse. If tony gwynn is on deck, that must raise the % impact of the bunt. If the batter is a ground ball machine, that must also raise the impact of the bunt b/c it lessens double play possibility. Or if batter is super fast scrub, bunt can be good because of % chance it turns into a hit or error. i doubt bunting jason kendall can be too much of a mistake as long as the hitters coming up behind him are good.Jonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-3850315142454767262009-06-08T13:46:35.921-05:002009-06-08T13:46:35.921-05:00And there should be a closed quote after "1 r...And there should be a closed quote after "1 run".PaulNoonanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01600099270280639424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-48275789678975437882009-06-08T13:45:26.344-05:002009-06-08T13:45:26.344-05:00No prob. I'd really recommend reading the cha...No prob. I'd really recommend reading the chapter and the whole book. In terms of win expectancy I think it makes some sense. When you are trailing, outs are more precious than they normally are. Click makes the point that a sacrifice is actually less damaging when you're down by 3+ because your odds of winning are so low to begin with. (It's still damaging though.)<br /><br />"Second, it's significantly <i>worse</i> (italics original) to do so (sacrifice) when down by 1 or 2 runs than when down by 3, largely because the win expectancy is so low when a team is down by 3 that there just isn't much to lose by sacrificing. More important, the <i>worst</i> (still original) time to sacrifice is when a team is down in a close game, even when that deficit is only 1 run. <br /><br />By the way, my copy of the book is autographed by Nate Silver.PaulNoonanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01600099270280639424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-55240602679886607532009-06-08T13:25:09.990-05:002009-06-08T13:25:09.990-05:00Thanks for posting this. I have previously seen t...Thanks for posting this. I have previously seen the stats on the lower chance of winning with bunting but I did have the "What if the batter is Jason Kendall?" question. Good stuff.<br /><br />That batting line makes it a marginal choice even if the batter is a pitcher! That part is surprising to me.OC Lurkernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-13471958046681058952009-06-08T12:42:57.778-05:002009-06-08T12:42:57.778-05:00I wish so much that Macha had dropped the percenta...I wish so much that Macha had dropped the percentages on the reporters instead of the bullshit "I play to win on the road" nonsense.E.S.K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/02755352124021777813noreply@blogger.com