tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post7445737029952312078..comments2024-03-15T02:19:47.181-05:00Comments on Brewed Sports: Stupid Phillies May Make Prince UnsignableDannyNoonanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12965127114354857721noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-20456093830486935882013-04-21T13:23:57.785-05:002013-04-21T13:23:57.785-05:00tviw8c43
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...tviw8c43 <br /> <br />hl1p2kdd <br /> <br />f54yewr4t536 <br /> <br />asl0yiyn <br /> <br />e0gqpl0bAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-19957244009994628002012-12-26T11:21:27.507-06:002012-12-26T11:21:27.507-06:00yrkpync2
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...yrkpync2 <br /> <br />we4ie1sa <br /> <br />f39s020t9d <br /> <br />lrkn3o0e <br /> <br />sgljrjh9Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-83308856077001233872012-12-21T05:24:22.976-06:002012-12-21T05:24:22.976-06:00th9qwhg6
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...th9qwhg6 <br /> <br />oa3i3bwz <br /> <br />f39s020t9d <br /> <br />tiq9ygc0 <br /> <br />dl9fd5qwAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-30417128012562994922010-04-27T10:07:36.727-05:002010-04-27T10:07:36.727-05:00Ditto. It just wouldn't take much for the Gia...Ditto. It just wouldn't take much for the Giants to become a huge threat.PaulNoonanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01600099270280639424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-90250484928404311692010-04-27T10:06:07.909-05:002010-04-27T10:06:07.909-05:00I'm happy to say that i think the Mets are set...I'm happy to say that i think the Mets are set at 1B as well (fingers-crossed). I wonder, besides Boston, who the big bidders will be. Possibly Atlanta, but they don't seem to be big spenders anymore. Angels are set, i'm not sure who the Giants have at 1st but i can't understand why they don't shell out for hitters while they have Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez on the cheap.Jonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-18790408664914882902010-04-27T09:51:44.722-05:002010-04-27T09:51:44.722-05:00I think that's true, but something else to con...I think that's true, but something else to consider:<br /><br />1. The Yankees are set at 1st and may not be bidding at all in the great 1st base free agent class of 2011.<br /><br />2. Howard is the oldest of that group.<br /><br />3. The Phils, being relatively large market, could quite possibly have gotten 2 more good years out of Howard and then signed Prince or Pujols (or failing that, Gonzalez) and quite possibly for similar money. <br /><br />But you're right. The Phils can weather a bad deal or two whereas if this were the Brewers, it might end up crippling them.PaulNoonanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01600099270280639424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-85512406521728448642010-04-27T09:34:44.009-05:002010-04-27T09:34:44.009-05:00We'll see if that decline is a trend or just f...We'll see if that decline is a trend or just fluky b/c of 1 year smallish sample sizes. I think it would matter more if opposing managers were smarter, and never let him face a right-handed pitcher with runners on base in the later innings, but they aren't (i think even Girardi let him hit against righty non-Mariano relievers in the WS). I agree he will probably decline enough to make it a bad (possibly very bad) deal in a few years, mainly i think his performance the past few years has been underrated. But there's also something to be said for keeping their core in place the next 3-4 years and going for another 1-2 WS wins, thats what its all about. If they suck in 2015-2017 but they won another WS before then, you could argue it was worth it. A team with a high payroll and revenue stream, in the midst of contending for WS, can afford to overpay and perhaps should overpay in situations where a similar deal would be terrible for other teams.Jonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-89708523750399562842010-04-27T09:20:16.771-05:002010-04-27T09:20:16.771-05:00"Also, Ryan Howard has essentially the same c..."Also, Ryan Howard has essentially the same career OPS against lefty pitchers as Justin Morneau and Adrian Gonzalez, do we ever hear them referred to as glorified platoon players, as either Sheehan or Law refers to Howard?"<br /><br />Yes, but he's been getting worse:<br /><br />2007 v. lefties: .225/.333/.493<br />2008: .224/.294/.451<br />2009: .207/.298/.356<br /><br />Morneau more recently has OPS's of .778 and .836 the last two years. Gonzalez you have more of a point on but even he improved against lefties from 08 to 09. Howard has been steadily declining in this area and last year against lefties he was basically Jason Kendall.PaulNoonanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01600099270280639424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-57655888973343649372010-04-27T08:59:19.230-05:002010-04-27T08:59:19.230-05:00Well, contrarian regarding all the snarky hate tow...Well, contrarian regarding all the snarky hate towards Howard from your Law/Neyer/fangraphs posts (the fangraphs one calling it the worst contract in baseball had to be the most ridiculous one of all), and towards your statement about he cant hit lefties at all. And actually, as one guy on BP pointed out, the contract might even be pretty good if a few things break right (mainly salary inflation and Howard's health holding up). Bottom line - as a Met fan am i happy about this contract? Not really. I mean, it could easily be an albatross in 2015-2016 on the Phils. But it also helps ensure they're gonna be really good the next 3-4 years. Unless he completely falls off a cliff a la Mo Vaughn, which is i guess what we have to hope for.Jonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-28178567424073495832010-04-27T08:55:49.544-05:002010-04-27T08:55:49.544-05:00Also, Ryan Howard has essentially the same career ...Also, Ryan Howard has essentially the same career OPS against lefty pitchers as Justin Morneau and Adrian Gonzalez, do we ever hear them referred to as glorified platoon players, as either Sheehan or Law refers to Howard? The criticisms of this guy are ridiculous - just b/c the general public overrates him by giving him MVP's over Pujols, the stats community has to go completely overboard in the opposite direction.Jonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-74293181302838916662010-04-27T08:55:30.584-05:002010-04-27T08:55:30.584-05:00I don't actually think that was very contraria...I don't actually think that was very contrarian.PaulNoonanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01600099270280639424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-7741707649176060682010-04-27T08:30:34.717-05:002010-04-27T08:30:34.717-05:00Yay, i get to be the contrarian again! Ok, i won&...Yay, i get to be the contrarian again! Ok, i won't say that this was a good deal or that it makes sense from the Phillies standpoint. I'll just say that the "hate" Ryan Howard gets from the Neyer's and Fangraphs of the world is quite overboard. Here are some career #s. With bases empty, .268/.340/.539. With runners on base, .290/.404/.626. Over 1500 plate appearances in both groups. In low leverage situations .267/.365/.535. In high leverage situations .302/.404/.657. 700 plate appearances in high leverage. Now the key in evaluating him is whether you believe WAR in that those differences are totally the result of luck and we don't think he's likely to continue being better in those types of situations. Me, i find those differences over 1500 plate appearances to be pretty convincing (if i'm doing the stat-testing correctly, his OBP with runners on vs bases empty is significantly different with 99.9% confidence). I'm also pretty sure Fangraphs has him at an average fielding 1B, and while thats likely to decline some, 1B defense really doesn't matter that much. Bad contract - yes. Underrated player by saberists - yes.Jonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1413451422114161954.post-83887518704332602012010-04-26T17:56:17.735-05:002010-04-26T17:56:17.735-05:00On the plus side, Melvin now HAS to realize they h...On the plus side, Melvin now HAS to realize they have no chance of signing Prince so he should trade him as soon as possible to get max value.<br /><br />Red Sox need a DH.E.S.K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/02755352124021777813noreply@blogger.com